Major changes in the international order

Major changes in the international order

World War III has already quietly begun.

The US, China, Russia, and Europe are engaged in a power struggle.

Military simulation:

United States

Global military strikes enter a new mode: decapitation strike - US Delta Force captures Venezuelan President Maduro

On Saturday, January 3, 2026, at 22:46 EST on January 2nd (midnight), the order was given, and at 2:01 AM on January 3rd, Asian time, they entered Maduro's residence.

From Trump‘s inauguration on January 20, 2025.

With the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the world has entered a war mode. Trump‘s 47th presidential success and Kamala-Harris‘s defeat have had a huge impact on global geopolitics.

It has been eight years since Trump was successfully re-elected. When Trump took office in his first term, his biggest problem was that he was not a politician, but a successful businessman. He used a businessman‘s mindset during the transition of a presidency. Being re-elected, he had already recognized his own shortcomings. His political mindset was growing more mature, plus a businessman‘s mindset. In other words, the 47th Trump was no longer the Trump of eight years ago. His governing abilities were more stable and seasoned.

At the beginning of his tenure, he needed a good omen to improve his abilities and personal charm. Faced with President Biden‘s political legacy, Trump saw it as an opportunity to fulfill his election slogan “Make America Great Again,” which was also the core underlying logic of his governing philosophy.

 Before taking office, he said that as long as he was elected president, he would achieve a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian war within 24 hours, and he won the final victory in the general election with this reason. When faced with reality, he also caused global attention to become a joke because of his big talk, and the world was watching how he made foolish mistakes in performance. In the military, diplomatic, and political processes, he was not as mature and steady as President Biden. But his personality characteristics were lightning-like and quick-witted, and he was good at surprising and winning leapfrog thinking, which made up for these shortcomings.

During this year, he reshaped national relations with East Asian powers as well as the Middle East and Syria, striking Syria, Russia‘s and China‘s common European bridgehead, causing Syrian President Assad to flee to Moscow. His control over the global situation was very precise. He first played ambiguous games with Russia, using ambiguous policies to continue mediating the Russo-Ukrainian war. Then he changed the Defense Department to the War Department. He pressed the start button for global hegemony. It can be seen that the Trump administration began to change from a passive state to an active offensive state.

During his visit to Japan on October 27, 2025, he and the newly elected prime minister, Takaichi Sanae, unexpectedly reached an agreement to promote freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region. In fact, since Trump took office, the United States has entered a state of war, especially in the South China Sea in the Asia-Pacific region. As 2027 approaches, U.S. think tanks believe that China will launch a Taiwan Sea war, so the United States has tightly integrated some NATO countries with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to form a strike circle against China.

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 The United States held midterm elections in 2026, and with the success of the beheading operation against the Verenela Maduro government, it greatly encouraged the U.S. endorsement of this style of play, enhancing the deterrent power of U.S. hegemony, and becoming a state-of-the-art strike mode.

In fact, the concept of decapitation was proposed by Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, who said that to reduce the damage to civilians, decapitation should be used as much as possible, rather than avoiding large-scale military operations. On June 7, 1981, the two-minute bombing of a nuclear facility 17 kilometers south of Baghdad with F-16 fighters stopped Iraq‘s plan to develop nuclear weapons, and this operation became a model of targeted elimination. The code name for this model was “Operation Opera or Opera House.” The United States cited the Israeli model, which successfully decapitated the senior Iranian general Qasim Suleimani near the Baghdad airport in Iraq on January 3, 2020, using an MQ-9 drone. On December 7, 2025, Thailand was directed to strike against Cambodia, mainly because of fraudulent zone gangs within Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar. The scam of American elderly became the trigger, launching actions to fight fraud. It also organized 60 countries to establish international anti-fraud centers in Thailand. In fact, the United States and Thailand are strategic partnerships in Indochina itself, while the Trump administration continued President Biden‘s political legacy and also reached a new type of strategic partnership with the Vietnamese government.

    The Trump administration is launching a brand-new war model, using the smallest cost to achieve the greatest strategic goal. That is, accurately hitting the Maduro administration as mentioned above, and capturing Maduro to the United States for interrogation. The Trump administration will replicate this model against East Asian countries, continuing to hit countries such as Iran, Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico to maintain its latest strategic achievements. It must first clear the strategic threats around the United States, because the countries around the United States have almost been infiltrated by China and Russia.

At the same time, it shook off the wavering pro-American positions of some small and medium-sized countries, thereby opening up America‘s new war mindset and stimulating new economic dynamics through war, leveraging the dollar exchange rate and military-industrial products to stimulate economic development.

Of course, Trump may face the threat of being assassinated again during his tenure, or a sudden air crash. But during his tenure, he will definitely resolve the problem of China and Russia competing for hegemony with the United States.

According to the relevant information, a large number of U.S. strategic bombers, fuel tankers, and fighter planes headed directly to various bases in Middle East Greece or Jordan after completing their resupply in the United Kingdom. This large-scale mobilization operation was the signal for the operation to begin. Long before Maduro‘s capture, U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups had also entered South American waters and were on standby. On the surface, they were fighting against smuggling cruises and drugs, but in reality, they were waiting for an attack opportunity.

At this moment, the country of Verinella was no longer stable. The U.S. military surrounded without fighting, creating a tense atmosphere that had already crushed Maduro‘s dictatorship in public opinion. The Maduro government‘s long-term enslavement policy also caused the people to erupt with feelings of overthrow at this moment. The U.S. took advantage of this favorable opportunity to capture Maduro, stabilizing the state of the Verinella country and realizing the super-paradigm of achieving the greatest benefits at the lowest cost.

The godfather of the Iranian government, Khamenei, was the boss of the dictatorship that enslaved the people. He was the heir to Khamenei’s fundamentalism. Iran dominated the Middle East with Russia at its back, while China exploited conflicts within Islamic factions in the region. Khamenei was the main mastermind behind the struggles with Syria, Palestine, and Israel.

In order to quickly withdraw to deal with the Asia-Pacific situation, the United States is now suddenly striking South American countries at its doorstep, eliminating various threats. From the capture of Maduro, it can be clearly found that the current U.S. war model is the ability to open two battlefields simultaneously. In other words, besieging Iran can also conveniently cut off Cuba‘s maritime oil transport lines, and Iran and Cuba could be simultaneously defeated by Trump.

In 2026, Trump almost achieved the slogan of making America Great Again. Next, the geopolitical sectors of Asia-Pacific, and even the world, will redefine their spheres of influence.         

Russia,

The Russo-Ukrainian War has lasted 1,412 days from February 24, 2022, to January 6, 2026

Russia lost 1.2 million troops. Looking back, Putin‘s rule from December 31, 1999, to January 6, 2026, has been continuous for 26 years. He once said: He once said give me 20 years, and give you a powerful Russia. He wanted to restore the state influence of the Soviet era, but it was actually impossible. Because he was not Joseph Stalin, the powerful Soviet Empire was formed in the context of the Second World War.

Putin‘s desire to restore the former Soviet Union’s powerful state is almost impossible to achieve. But even if it cannot be achieved, as a goal and blueprint, it can still paralyze the people. At least it is beneficial for maintaining one’s own interests of centralized rule.

He failed in the Ukrainian military operation because he did not understand the actual situation in Ukraine, and all the decisions were based on false reports from the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, as well as false information from the National Directorate of Security.

In order to avoid responsibility in the face of failure, the Ministry of Defense and the Security Bureau continuously covered one lie with another, causing Putin to be closed-minded in strategic control thinking. The key fatal factor was the joint alliance with China to deal with the United States. Originally, the moment of the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War was also the golden moment for China to launch a naval campaign in the South China Sea. Theoretically, it was to prevent the United States from conducting a two-front war on two battlefields.

Assad, the former president of Syria, is the vanguard of Russia and China in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, as well as working with Hamas in Palestine to strike against Israel and contain Israeli and U.S. forces in the Middle East. Iran, as the largest base for China and Russia in the Middle East, supports Syria and Palestine in waging war and terrorist attacks, using the Israeli war to contain U.S. forces. In response to Russia‘s strike against European and U.S. forces in Ukraine, it achieves the goal of preventing NATO‘s eastward expansion. China, on the other hand, takes the opportunity to invade Taiwan and complete the so-called unification.

Putin is now facing the risk of Russia disintegrating again. If this happens, it will trigger his desperate use of nuclear bombs, leading to the destruction of Europe or Japan. If it disintegrates, will he go into exile in those countries? If not, it is possible to establish a new regime in the Far East Krai in full cooperation with China. It is highly possible to reach a consensus with China on leasing or joint development of land that Russia has historically occupied.

It is also possible that he will compromise with the United States and dismantle Russia in exchange for the security of his personal property. It is also possible that after selling out China, he will emigrate or hide in some small country to spend his final years in peace. According to the life expectancy of Russian countries, which is generally around 60 years old, he may now experience sudden life exhaustion at the age of 74. The corruption of the Russian Ministry of Defense and General Staff will eventually lead to the complete defeat and end of the Russian regime

  China,

Xi Jinping has served as the head of state of China since March 14, 2013, for 13 years. Upon taking office, he proposed the "Belt and Road Initiative," initiating a new mode of interaction between China and the world. This was followed by the introduction of the "Chinese Dream," which surprised the world, leaving many wondering about its true meaning! Simultaneously, anti-corruption efforts began in late 2012 and January 22, 2013.

The core issue during Xi Jinping's tenure is the reunification of Taiwan, aiming to resolve this historical issue by the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army in 2027. His four-pronged approach includes combating corruption, promoting the "Belt and Road Initiative," realizing the "Chinese Dream," and achieving poverty alleviation.     

 He postponed the resolution of the Taiwan problem until his third term, but thirteen years later, when he was already seventy-three years old, he found that the anti-corruption activities were becoming increasingly complex, and even the anti-corruption blade was castrating the core interests of bureaucratic classes at all levels. This group of bureaucrats began to do nothing, fawning and avoiding work responsibilities, so he did not hesitate to amend the constitution to obtain re-election to achieve his goal, but he did not think that when punishing military corruption, arresting almost all senior officers and completing the anti-corruption work had completed less than 50 percent, missing the best window of opportunity to launch the South China Sea war.

Since 2020, internal power officials have sheltered South-East Asian scam groups in the Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos, causing the government‘s credibility to rapidly decline. In addition, the introduction of various foolish policies has caused popular grievances to boil throughout the country. Because of the Taiwan problem, the military is now completely without combat power. The national economy is also on the verge of collapse. Large foreign companies are rapidly evacuating China. In this state, his desire to solve the Taiwan problem will already be in vain. This is only domestic factors. The most unfavorable factors for him are that his family has used the protection of his power during the pandemic to obtain astronomical wealth, as well as the promotion and corruption of the military bureaucracy, allowing his political opponents to find an advantageous breakthrough point to defeat him. Like Putin, he has reached the age of 74. According to Chinese lifespan estimates, he is facing a life-threatening period. Although China has achieved various breakthroughs in organ transplantation, for an elderly person, his mind, physical ability, intelligence, health, and other factors have led to him already being overwhelmed.    

    Due to Taiwan‘s outstanding contribution to global semiconductors, which provide advanced technology to developed countries, they are deeply tied together. Given this, the United States, NATO, the Eyeless Alliance, Japan, and South Korea have all unilaterally given full support to Taiwan. If China cannot recover its economy in a short period of time and then start the Taiwan Strait War, it will inevitably fail completely.

The game between the United States and China. After Trump takes Iran, Cuba, and Colombia, he will release the wealth hiding of top Chinese officials. At that time, China‘s scandal will be watched under overwhelming global spotlight. Although China will shut down the internet to prevent it from spreading to Chinese citizens, its credibility as a major country in the world will completely collapse. Domestic citizens and local governments are already close to collapse. Under the catalyst of this scandal, large-scale resistance movements will be stirred up. The continued deterioration of national relations will eventually trigger national chaos. The military also begins to question the party-state policies and loses combat power. At this time, the United States and NATO countries‘ joint carrier strike groups have been observing from overseas, waiting for an opportunity to move.

The end result was the same as in Verenella and Iran. The country‘s chaos was unbearable, forcing the government to reform and purge the highest corrupt officials and officials! This was what the Chinese government feared the most. An effect comparable to a nuclear-bomb strike

    This war has the following scenarios; similar to the Second World War‘s Normandy Landing

Scenario 1:

A comprehensive blockade of the Taiwan Strait is implemented through military exercises, leading to a near-total halt of merchant shipping to and from Taiwan, effectively severing Taiwan's trade ties with other countries. The island quickly faces severe shortages of essential supplies. Right-wing forces within Taiwan, along with Chinese covert agents and intelligence operatives, launch an armed uprising to overthrow the Lai Ching-te government.

Scenario 2:

A large-scale deployment of fishing boats, carrying armed personnel, along with the navy, launches an assault on the main island of Taiwan. Simultaneously, land-based missiles are fired at military targets in Taiwan. Paratroopers are then air-dropped onto the island. A rapid landing is achieved through coordinated air and sea operations.

Taiwan's 130-kilometer coastline differs significantly from the conditions of the Normandy landings. China lacks experience in amphibious landing operations and has virtually no experience in air superiority, electronic warfare suppression, or cross-sea landing operations.  Casualties on the first day of fighting would be no less than 60,000 troops, and within three days, almost all 200,000 troops would be annihilated during the crossing. At this point, Russia launches an attack on Sakhalin, striking mainland Japan to divert Japanese military forces and support China. India would seize the opportunity to grab parts of the disputed territory in southern Tibet, seeking to militarily harass and tie down China's northwestern forces.

All US strategic bombers in Guam, Okinawa, and South Korea are activated, along with at least two aircraft carrier strike groups, positioned outside the effective range of Chinese land-based missiles, providing resupply and command for fighter jets and bombers. Taiwanese forces would use their latest long-range missiles to strike the Three Gorges Dam in China, while US bombers would conduct comprehensive bombing raids on Shanghai Yangshan Port, Shenzhen Yantian Port, Tianjin Port, Guangzhou, and Qingdao Port. This would include bombing coastal nuclear power plants and oil refineries.

At this point, the United Nations intervenes to mediate a ceasefire.

Scenario 3:

A large-scale military operation is launched suddenly, but due to US intervention, it ends abruptly with little impact. Only Kinmen Island is occupied, creating a show of force and being presented domestically as a partial victory. In reality, under pressure from pro-American factions, vested interest groups, and corrupt officials, the Xi Jinping government is forced into negotiations, only occupying Kinmen and surrounding islands, providing the Xi Jinping government with a face-saving solution. An agreement is reached with the US to avoid sanctions against China and the freezing of assets of corrupt officials, restoring peace. For the Xi Jinping government, a war is urgently needed to cover up the intertwined social contradictions, inflation, and economic collapse. China has now entered an abnormal state of operation, and unprecedented global changes are already underway.

The above is merely a projection and simulation. We will wait and see how things unfold.

                                                                                                                                                     IPCDC

                                                                                                                                                         2026-01-10

国际秩序的巨变， 第三次世界大战已经缓慢启动

         美、中、俄 加欧洲角力   

兵旗推演，

美国

全球军事打击进入新模式，斩首行动    美军三角洲部队抓捕维瑞内拉总统马杜罗 

2026年1月3日星期周六，凌晨美国东部时间2日22时46分下达命令， 亚洲时间1月3日凌晨2时01分进入马杜罗住所。

从川普就职2025年1月20日说起。

从俄乌战争开始，全球进入了战争模式。川普当选地47届总统成功与卡玛拉-哈瑞斯败选，对全球的地缘政治产生了巨大影响。

川普再次当选成功已经时隔8年。川普在首届上任时，他最大的问题出在他不是政治家，而是一个成功商人，他用商人思维过渡了一届总统的执政。再次当选他已经认识到自己的不足，政治思维日趋成熟，再加上商人思维，也就是说地47届川普总统已经不是8年前的川普。他的执政能力更加稳健和老辣。

他上任伊始，需要开局大吉的好兆头来提升他的能力和个人魅力。面对拜登总统遗留的政治遗产对于川普来说，他认为是一个契机，他想籍此来兑现大选时的口号“让美国再次伟大”这也是他执政理念的核心底层逻辑。

就职前他说只要当选总统就会让俄乌战争24小时之内实现停火，他用这个理由赢得了大选最后的胜利。当面对现实时，又因为说了大话导致全球关注成了笑话，全球都在看他如何在表演中犯愚蠢的错误。在过军事、外交、政治过程中，他没有拜登总统成熟沉稳。但是他的性格特点是雷厉风行，善于出奇制胜的跳跃式思维，弥补了以上的缺陷。

这一年来，他重塑了与东亚强国以及中东和叙利亚的国家关系，打击了俄罗斯与中国共同的欧洲桥头堡叙利亚，致使叙利亚总统阿萨德逃亡莫斯科。他对于全球局势的把控非常精准，他首先与俄罗斯玩暧昧游戏，使用模糊政策继续调停俄乌战争。接着把国防部改为战争部。按下了全球称雄的启动按钮。可见川普政府开始由被动状态变为主动的攻击态势。

在2025年10月27日访问日本，与新当选的首相高市早苗政府不谋而合达成共识，推动印太地区航行自由。实际上川普上任以来美国已经进入战争状态，特别是亚太地区南中国海，随着2027年临近，美国智库认为中国会发动台海战争，所以美国把北约部分国家与日、韩、台湾紧密整合在一起，形成对抗中国的打击圈。

美国在2026年进行中期选举，随着对维瑞内拉马杜罗政府的斩首行动的成功，大大鼓励了美国对于这种打法的推崇，提升了美国霸权的震慑力，并且成为了一种最新打击模式。 

实际上 对于斩首行动的概念还是以色列内塔尼亚胡提出来的，他说为了减小对平民的伤害，尽量使用斩首行动，而是避免大规模军队作战。在1981年6月7日，2分钟使用F-16战斗机轰炸了巴格达以南17公里处的核设施，阻止了伊拉克发展核武的计划，这个行动成为了定点清除的典范。该典范的代号“巴比伦行动或者叫歌剧院行动”。美国引用了以色列的典范战例，在2020年1月3日伊拉克巴格达机场附近，利用MQ-9无人机把伊朗高级将领卡西姆-苏莱曼尼将军斩首成功。2025年12月7日，指导泰国对于柬埔寨进行打击，主要原因是柬埔寨、泰国、缅甸境内的诈骗区团伙。诈骗了美国老年人成为诱因，展开了打击诈骗的行动。还组织了60个国家在泰国建立了国际反诈骗中心。实际上美国与泰国在中南半岛本身就是战略伙伴关系，同时川普政府延续拜登总统的政治遗产与越南政府也达成了新型战略伙伴关系。

川普政府开启崭新的战争模式，使用最小的代价完成最大战略目的。就是以上说的精准打击马杜罗政府，并且抓获马杜罗到美国进行审问，针对东亚国家川普政府将会复制这一模式，继续打击伊朗、古巴、哥伦比亚、墨西哥等国来维护他的最新战略成果。必然先清除美国周边的战略威胁，因为在美国周边国家几乎被中国和俄罗斯已经渗透。

同时震慑了一些中小国家亲美的摇摆立场，由此开启美国的新战争思维模式和通过战争来刺激经济新动力，撬动美元汇率以及军工产品来刺激经济发展。

当然川普在任内可能面临再次遭到暗杀，或者突发事件空难等威胁。不过在其任内一定会解决中国和俄罗斯与美国争夺霸权的问题。

接下来根据相关资讯显示，美国各种战略轰炸机、加油机、战斗机大量在英国完成补给后直奔在中东希腊或者约旦的多个基地。这种大规模调兵行动就是开展的信号。早在抓捕马杜罗之前，美军航母打击群也是早就进入南美海域待命，表面是打击走私的邮轮、走私毒品的活动，实则是等候进攻时机。

此刻维瑞内拉国内已经不再稳定，美军围而不打制造紧张气氛，从民意上已经压垮了马杜罗独裁政权。马杜罗政府长期奴役政策也让人民此刻爆发推翻的情绪，美国利用该有利时机抓捕马杜罗，稳定了维瑞内拉国家状态，实现以最小代价完成最大利益的超级典范。

伊朗政府哈梅内伊的教父是独裁奴役人民的总老板，他是霍梅尼原教旨主义的继承者。伊朗背靠俄罗斯、中国在中东地区利用伊斯兰派别内部矛盾，称霸中东。叙利亚、巴勒斯坦等国与以色列角力主要幕后就是哈梅内伊的杰作。

美国为了尽快抽身对付亚太地区局势，现在突然打击家门口的南美国家，清除各种威胁。从抓捕马杜罗可以清楚发现，美国现在的战争模式就是同时开启两个战场的能力。也就说围攻伊朗同时可以顺手切断古巴的海上石油运输线，伊朗、古巴可能同时被川普击倒。

2026年川普几乎实现了让“美国再次伟大”的口号。接下来亚太、乃至全球的地缘政治板块就会重新划分势力范围。 

俄罗斯，

俄乌战争自2022年2月24日，至2026年1月6日，已经持续了1412天

俄罗斯伤亡120万兵力。回顾普京执政自1999年12月31日起，至2026年1月6日，已经连续26年。他曾说：他曾说给我20年，还给你个强大俄罗斯。他想恢复苏联时代的国家影响力，实际上是不可能的。因为他不是约瑟夫-斯大林，强大的苏联帝国是在二战这个大背景下形成的。

   普京想恢复前苏联的强大状态几乎实现不了。但是尽管实现不了，作为目标和蓝图还是可以麻痹人民的。至少对于维护自己的集权统治利益还是有利的。

  他对于乌克兰军事行动是失败的，因为他不了解乌克兰实际情况，所有决策都是国防部和总参谋部的虚假汇报资料，还有国家安全局的虚假信息。

国防部和安全局在失败面前为了逃避责任，不停的一个谎言覆盖另外一个谎言，致使普京在战略把控的思维上是闭塞的，关键的致命因素是与中国达成了共同对付美国的统一联盟上，本来俄乌战争启动时刻也是中国发动南中国海海上战役的黄金时刻，理论上是让美国不能进行两个战场双线作战。

叙利亚前总统阿萨德是俄罗斯和中国在中东和地中海的前沿，还有与巴勒斯坦的哈马斯共同打击以色列，牵制以色列与美国在中东地区的力量。伊朗则作为中俄在中东的最大基地，他支持叙利亚、巴勒斯坦发动战争和恐怖袭击，利用以色列战争牵制美国的兵力。策应俄罗斯打击欧美在乌克兰的实力，从而达到防止北约东扩的目的。中国则乘机攻取台湾，完成所谓的统一。

普京现在面临俄罗斯再次解体的风险已经显现。如果发生解体就会触发他孤注一掷使用核弹打击，由此带来欧洲或者日本的灭顶之灾。如果解体他会流亡到那个各国？如果不流亡那么可能在远东边疆区建立一个新政权与中国全面合作。把俄罗斯在历史上侵占的土地用租赁或者共同开发为由与中国达成共识。这个可能性很大。

还有可能与美国妥协，解体俄罗斯换取他个人财产安全。也可能出卖中国后他流亡或者隐匿在某个小国安度晚年。根据俄罗斯国家人口寿命普遍在60岁左右，他现在74岁可能会出现突发性生命衰竭。俄罗斯国防部、总参谋部的腐败最终会让俄罗斯政权完败而告终。

中国，

中国习近平自2013年3月14日，任中国元首至今已经13年。他上任伊始提出“一带一路”倡议，开启了中国与全球的互动模式，紧接着推出“中国梦”让世界愕然，不知道这个命题的意义所在！同时在2012年底2013年1月22日，反腐败工作拉开序幕。

 习近平任内核心问题是实现台湾收回，在2027年建军100周年之际完成这个历史遗留问题。他打击贪腐、推动“一带一路”倡议、实现“梦想”、“社会脱贫”四部曲。

他把解决台湾问题放到第三个任期解决，但是13年下来他已经73岁，他发现反腐活动越来越复杂，甚至反腐的利刃阉割了各级官僚阶级的核心利益。这群官僚开始不作为、阿谀奉承逃避工作责任，于是他不惜修改宪法获取连任来实现他的目标，可是他没有想到在惩治军队腐败时，几乎把所有高级军官抓起来反腐败工作完成了还不到50%，错过了发动南中国海战争的最佳窗口期。

特别是中国在2019年底在武汉爆发疫情，由于他的各级执行部门呆板机械，导致整个中国成了全球最荒唐的奇葩政府。最严重的是疫情把国民经济给掏空了。他的权力主要机构大部分掌握在他过去的同僚手里，其智囊机构存在玄学迷信、迂腐封建、等不懂现代化建设逻辑等弊端。有一些能人志士被排除在权力决策机构以外。导致他的外交、军事、经济、政治混乱不堪，一群人为了讨巧会顺应他的思路忽略客观事实，做出了各种的奇葩决定。许多高级官员把中国的大量资产藏匿在欧美等发达国家。对于习近平政府极度不忠诚。

在2020年以来，内部权力官员庇护了在菲律宾、柬埔寨、缅甸、泰国、老挝等东南亚诈骗团伙，导致政府公信力迅速下滑。再加上各种愚蠢政策的出台，导致全国各地民怨沸腾。因为要解决台湾问题，军队此刻已经毫无战斗力。国民经济也是近乎崩溃。外国大型公司快速撤离中国。在这种状态下，他想解决台湾问题已经会化为泡影。这仅仅是国内因素。对他最不利因素还有其家族在疫情期间利用他权力的庇佑获取了天量财富，还有军队官僚体系的晋升腐败，让政治对手找到了击败他的有利突破口。他也与普京一样，步入74岁状态。根据中国人的寿命推测，面临一个生命危险期。尽管中国已经在器官移植方面取得各种突破，对于一个老年人来讲，他的思维、体能、智慧、健康等因素导致他已经不堪重负

由于台湾半导体在全球方面的杰出贡献，为发达国家提供高科技而互相深度捆绑。有鉴于此美国、北约、无眼联盟、日、韩都一边倒的全面支持台湾。。如果中国短时间不能经济复苏，再开启台湾海峡战争，必然会彻底失败。

美国与中国的博弈，川普把伊朗、古巴、哥伦比亚后，就会释放中国顶级官员的财富藏匿情况，到时会铺天盖地的全球聚光灯下观看中国的丑闻。尽管中国会封闭互联网防止扩散给中国老百姓。但是在全球的大国信誉就会彻底崩塌。国内老百姓与地方政府已经接近崩溃，在这个丑闻的催化下，会掀起大面积反抗运动。国民关系持续恶化最终引爆全国混乱。军队也开始质疑党国的政策而失去战斗力。此时，美国与北约国家联合航母打击群一直在外海观察，伺机而动。

结局与维瑞内拉、伊朗一样，全国混乱不堪逼迫政府改革清算最高贪官污吏！这才是中国政府最害怕的事情。堪比核弹级打击效果。

这场战争有以下几个设想; 类似于二战诺曼底登陆

第一方案

用演习的方式全面封锁台湾海峡，在海峡进行长期的军事演习，导致台湾的进出商船几乎都被冻结，以达到切断台湾与各国的贸易往来。岛内物资很快短缺到枯竭。岛内右翼势力、中国隐蔽战线、特工等，发起武装暴动推翻赖清德政府。

第二方案

大规模发动渔船，携带军事武装人员与海军共同扑向台湾本岛，此时陆基导弹大规模射向台湾的军事目标。然后空降兵空降本岛。在海空力量的协同下快速登岛。

台湾130公里海岸线与诺曼底登陆的基本条件不一样。中国没有海上登陆作战的案例，对于制空权、电子战压制、渡海登陆作战几乎空白，开战第一天伤亡不低于6万兵力，三天20万兵力几乎全部被歼灭在渡海过程中。此刻俄罗斯在萨哈林发起攻击，打击日本本岛牵制日本军力策应中国。印度会趁机抢夺藏南地区部分领土，寻求军事骚扰牵制中国的西北军力。

美军在关岛、日本冲绳、韩国的战略轰炸机全部启动，航母打击群至少两个以上，在远离中国陆基导弹有效射程的位置，对战斗机、轰炸机进行补给和指挥。台湾军队则利用最新远程导弹打击中国三峡水库，美军轰炸机对上海羊山港、深圳盐田港、天津港、广州、青岛港全面轰炸。包括沿海核电厂、炼油厂等设施实施轰炸。

此时联合国出面实施调停停战。

第三方案，

突然发动大规模军事行动，却在美国的阻拦下，雷声大雨点小而草草收场。只占领金门岛，制造声势向国内宣传取得阶段性胜利。实际上在亲美派和既得利益群体、贪官妥协下，逼迫习近平政府和谈，只占领金门和周边岛屿，给习近平政府一个台阶下，与美国达成不制裁中国和不冻结贪官资产为理由，恢复平静。

对于习近平政府而言，急需一场战争来掩盖社会各种矛盾交织、通货膨胀、经济崩溃的局面。目前中国已经进入不正常的运行状态，世界未有之大变局已经到来。

以上只是推演和模拟效果。拭目以待，静观其变。

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