Global geopolitics and war game predictions

Global geopolitics and war game predictions

The evolution of global geopolitics and war predictions, and the emergence of the critical point of World War III

Russo-Ukrainian War: Day 591, Saturday, October 7, 2023

According to the comparison of war strength in the Russia-Ukraine war, the Ukrainian army should launch a major counterattack in the autumn of 2023. The war will end in September, but there is no expectation of a ceasefire. So what is the reason for the continued stalemate?

    Russia's war potential has been depleted, with weapons, logistical supplies, and conscription and mobilization all showing signs of weakness. According to this situation, it is expected that the war will end from September to November, and of course the Russian political system will become an empty shell or disintegrate. The fact that disintegration did not happen is not a good thing, because it heralds the coming of a big storm. Although the original communist camp has disintegrated, the successors still follow fundamentalist ideas and build on the strength of strong economies to cooperate with the original European and American Regime systems continue to confront each other, stemming from institutional and cultural battles.

    In 1945, the international order was established after the end of World War II. It has been in operation for 78 years. With the process of globalization, the formerly poor third world has gained the confidence to compete with developed countries in Europe and the United States due to rapid economic development. With economic development and the continuous improvement of people's living standards and cultural standards, social ideological trends have begun to develop in the direction of human civilization and freedom. The West has long established a scientific governance system in terms of human freedom, using laws and regulations to ensure the implementation and operation of this goal. The Eastern camp has been operating in feudal control of human freedom for thousands of years. Resource monopoly, unfair distribution of surplus value, and power rent-seeking have led Eastern people to yearn for the social system of Western civilization. It is this dream that has moved the interests of the ruling class. According to The genetic ordering of value distribution by the feudal ruling class is not allowed, so in order to protect the fruits of their plunder, the bureaucrats, bourgeoisie, and other wealthy classes hide their children and wealth in the cabinets of Western liberal power societies. However, under the influence of the Internet trend, ordinary people no longer wanted to be slaughtered and began to resist.

    The outbreak of the epidemic in 2019 became an inflection point in this new direction, that is, they awakened under irrational control, resulting in the ruling class having to pay a huge price for stable governance in order to achieve stability.

    The Russia-Ukraine war will break out in 2021. In fact, before the epidemic began in 2019, the Sino-US trade war had already begun during the Trump era. Logically speaking, this world war is a process of gradual escalation. The Russo-Ukrainian War, with the support of NATO and the United States, pitted Ukraine against Russia in the eastern region of Ukraine. According to the strategic plan of Europe and the United States, the war should be over, and Russia will end in defeat. This is an outcome that China, North Korea, and Iran do not want to see, and a new round of geopolitical power division will appear again. However, China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and cannot directly send troops to intervene. The United States cannot send troops either, so each has to look after its own allies behind the scenes. Despite strong support for Russian war materials, failure was inevitable.

    Strategically, the forces of Europe and the United States should be dispersed to reduce military pressure on Russia. How? It is very strange that on October 17th, Palestine suddenly launched a large-scale attack on Israel the next day. Israel is a global military power and the dominant player in the Middle East. There have been several Palestinian-Israeli wars in the past few decades. Palestine and Israel have always been at odds over ethnic and religious issues in the Middle East. The confrontation never stopped. Where did the Palestinian leader Hamas get the confidence to suddenly launch a large-scale attack, causing the paralysis of various mechanisms in Israel, especially the intelligence and air defense systems. The prevention and control system "Iron Dome" was covered by rockets several times larger than the defense system, and the "Iron Dome" interception failed. In China's Liberation War, this style of play called concentrating several times the enemy's forces to annihilate them one after another. On the Mediterranean coast, Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hamas in Palestine all started out in the same way and were designated as terrorist organizations by the United States and imposed sanctions. Now Hamas, with its support from Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq and other countries in Lebanon, challenges Israel and upsets the balance of power. The US military had to send aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean quickly to prevent the situation from getting out of control. At present, it seems that it will not end in a short time, and the military strength of the US military has been dispersed. This will reduce pressure on Russia.

    Next, North Korea may lose its mind and suddenly attack South Korea, and Russia will rekindle war on the four northern islands and drag Japan in. Northeast Asia has become a situation where North Korea versus South Korea and Russia versus Japan have emerged. This situation is the most dangerous because China will seize this opportunity to launch a war across the Taiwan Strait. At this time, neither Japan nor South Korea can join forces with the United States to protect Taiwan. This time point should be between November and April next year.

   In order to deal with the two-front operational risks brought to the United States by the Asia-Pacific crisis and the Middle East crisis, the United States will adopt a two-front operational model with Japan and South Korea. The south will form a combat hotspot with Taiwan, and the northwest will form a joint force with India. India will launch invasions on the borders of Xinjiang and Tibet to weaken China's power. In the south, we will form a joint force with Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries that have maritime disputes with China. In this way, Northeast Asia, northwest Asia, and the South China Sea will be completely sealed, leaving only Mongolia. By then, we may also reach a joint force relationship with the United States.

    At this time, China is fully mobilized and enters a state of war. Then the Third World War will begin, and the entire world will return to the twentieth century within a year or half a year.

    I hope the above will not happen. This is just a dangerous prediction and analysis based on geopolitical divisions, and I hope it is not accurate.

全球地缘政治、战争兵棋推演，第三次世界大战的临界点出现

俄乌战争：第 591 天，2023 年 10 月 7 日星期六

俄乌战争按照战争实力对比，乌军应该在2023年秋季大反攻，9月份战争结束，但是没有出现停火预期，那么什么原因导致持续胶着状态？

   俄罗斯按照战争潜力推测已经枯竭，武器、后勤供给、征兵动员都出现了疲软。按照这个状态预计在9月份至11月份会战争结束，当然是以俄罗斯政体变成一个空壳或者解体。解体件事没有出现恰恰不是好事，因为预示着一场大的风暴来临，原共产主义阵营尽管已经解体，但是继承者还是沿着原教旨主义的思路，在强大经济体的实力基础上，与原欧美政权体系继续对抗，这些都源于体制和文化的较量。

   1945年，二战结束后建立了国际秩序，至今已经运行了78年，随着全球化的进程，原来贫穷的第三世界在经济快速发展的情况下，有了与欧美发达国家抗衡的底气，由于经济发展人民生活水平和文化水平的不断提高，社会思潮开始向着人类文明和自由方向发展。西方早就在人类自由方面做出了科学的治理体系，用法律法规来保障这个目标的实施和运行。东方阵营在封建控制人类自由方面运行了几千年，资源垄断、剩余价值分配不公、权力寻租，导致东方人民向往西方文明的社会制度，就是这个梦想动却动了统治阶级的利益奶酪，按照封建统治阶级价值分配的基因排序是不允许的，那么官僚、资产阶级、等富裕阶层为保护自己的掠夺成果，就把子女和财富藏匿于西方自由权力社会的柜子里面。然而老百姓思维在互联网大潮的熏陶下不在愿意被继续宰割，开始反抗。

   2019年疫情爆发，成了这个新方向的拐点，也就是他们在非理性管控下觉醒了，导致统治阶级为了稳定不得不付出巨大代价进行稳定治理。

   2021年爆发俄乌战争，实际上2019年疫情开始前，美国川普时期中美贸易战已经开始了，从逻辑上来看这次世界大战是逐步升级的过程。俄乌战争，在北约和美国的支持下与乌克兰在乌东地区展开与俄罗斯的较量。按照欧美的战略计划战争应该结束了，俄罗斯将以失败而告终。这是中国、朝鲜、伊朗所不愿意看到的结果，那么新一轮地缘政治势力分割再次出现。但是中国是联合国常任理事国，又不能直接出兵干预，美国也是一样不能出兵，那就背后各自照顾自己的盟友。尽管大力支持俄罗斯战争物资，依旧免不了失败的局面。

   战略上应该分散欧美的力量来减轻俄罗斯的军事压力，怎么分散？很诡异在10月17日，巴勒斯坦在次日突然大举进攻以色列，以色列是全球军事强国，中东霸主地位，几十年来发生了若干次巴以战争，巴勒斯坦与以色列在中东地区，为了民族宗教问题从来就没有停止过对抗。巴勒斯坦首脑哈马斯哪来的底气突然发动大规模袭击，导致以色列出现各种机制瘫痪，特别是情报、防空体系。防控体系“铁穹”在数倍于防御体系的火箭弹的覆盖下，“铁穹”拦截失灵。这种打法在中国解放战争中叫集中数倍于敌的兵力各个歼灭。           地中海沿岸，叙利亚巴沙尔、巴勒斯坦的哈马斯的起家都是一套路子被美国定性为恐怖组织并且实施制裁。现在哈马斯在黎巴嫩真主党、伊朗、伊拉克等国的支持挑战以色列，打破了力量平衡。美军不得不派出航空母舰迅速到达地中海域防止局势失控。目前看来不会短时间结束，对美军的军事力量进行了分散。有利的为俄罗斯减轻了压力。

   接下来出现北朝鲜可能失去理智突然攻击韩国，俄罗斯在北方四岛再燃战火把日本拖进来。东北亚变成北朝鲜对韩国，俄罗斯对日本的局面出现。此局面最危险，因为中国会抓住这个机会发动台海战争。此时日本、韩国都不能与美国合力保护台湾，这个时间节点应该在11月至明年4月份之间。

  为了应对亚太危机和中东危机给美国带来的两线作战风险，美国会采取联合日本、韩国都变成两线作战模式。南部与台湾形成作战热点，西北部会与印度形成合力，印在新疆、西藏边境发动入侵，来削弱中国的力量。在南部与越南、印尼、菲律宾等与中国有海疆争议的国家形成合力，这样东北亚、西北、南中国海全面封死，还剩蒙古国这个缺口，届时可能与美国也达成合力关系。

   中国此时全面动员进入战争状态，那么第三次世界大战就拉开帷幕了，整个世界将会在一年或者半年内回到二十世纪。

   希望以上不会发生，这只是根据地缘政治的分割导致的危险预测和分析，希望不准确。