Russia-Ukraine War War Game Simulation

Russia-Ukraine War War Game Simulation

. Monday, March 3, 2025 Day 1104

2025. On February 28, President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the Round Table Conference Room.

The two sides had a dispute in the Round Table Office. Vice President Vance detonated the quarrel, which became a watershed between the United States and Europe and the focus of the world.

! ! This starts with the Munich Conference! Vice President Vance's lack of diplomatic experience at the Munich Conference criticized Europe's strategically ambiguous appeasement policy, which cast a shadow on the relationship between the United States and Europe. .

Judging the next step from the following aspects, the trend of this international chess game

First, Trump's election is related to the termination of the Russia-Ukraine war. The United States has been in operation for more than 200 years, and the two parties have fought but not broken. The ruling system has the ability to repair itself. However, Trump was elected presi

dent. He himself is a businessman, and he is undoubtedly weak in politics. In his first term in office, he fully demonstrated his businessman's nature and business practices, which are far from the real geopolitics and national strategy. After he was elected as the new president, he sa

id that within 24 hours, the Russia-Ukraine war would end. I don't know where he got the confidence to say this? If there is no reason, then his think tank team has undoubtedly exposed its own major weaknesses. Some people in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party will inevitably express opposition to Trump's very immature move. Trump has completely lost the national strategies such as great power diplomacy, military strongman, and geopolitics established by the United States.

Second, in the three-year Russian-Ukrainian war, Zelensky has shown remarkable achievements. A person with an artistic background was elected president by the people and competed with the world's second largest military power. His determination, perseverance and wisdom are obvious to all. Zelensky was able to go to the United States for negotiations. He must have a tacit understanding with Europe and a vision. Although the US president was angry with Zelensky, the world saw the fall of American democracy and civilization. On the surface, Zelensky was weak, but in order to uphold justice, he stood tenaciously in front of people all over the world.

 Third. At the Munich Conference, Vice President Vance fiercely criticized Europe and NATO. It can be said that he spoke without thinking on behalf of Trump at the conference. Later, when Trump mediated, he exposed his trump card, which is that he has no trump card.

Trump and Vance's speech under the spotlight of the media did not look like the president of a big country, but like a scene of bargaining in business. Trump's purpose in doing this is to kill two birds with one stone. Force Europe to abandon the ambiguous strategy, actively contribute money and manpower, and defeat Russia. His move did work. Now Europe has begun to come up with specific plans to support Ukraine to continue the confrontation. He is unwilling to anger Putin because Putin's anger will trigger a nuclear war. This is the underlying logic that the United States fears the most.

 President Biden's strategic thinking is that of a seasoned politician. From a geopolitical perspective, Russia must be disintegrated in order to achieve the United States' strategic goals, mainly to concentrate on dealing with China. In fact, Russia is about to fail completely, and Trump, who has just taken office, is eager to achieve success and is eager to reap Biden's political fruits. Trump did not expect that the Chinese president also wanted to play the role of mediator, hoping to achieve the goal of a ceasefire under China's mediation, and to win this huge international fruit for himself to improve his own economic downturn caused by the epidemic and the predicament of low government efficiency. Trump and Putin left China aside, and the two sides reached a consensus in Saudi Arabia for more than 4 hours behind closed doors without the presence of Ukraine, the country concerned. This consensus is the result of today's American roundtable meeting.

Fourth, the watershed

Trump may also be using a self-torture strategy, not mentioning Russian aggression on the surface, so that Putin can escape the dilemma of European sanctions as a war criminal, because some time ago, Europe reached a resolution through a sanctions meeting that Putin should be sanctioned by the Hague Court. This gift package is the biggest gift Trump gave to Putin.

Of course, Trump also knows that doing so will anger Europe and lead to a complicated rebalancing of US-European relations. The rift deepens. Trump's wishful thinking is at risk of failure. Trump is currently facing a government reorganization, streamlining of institutions and large-scale layoffs of civil servants, and a purge of the intelligence system, which is a big waste of money, which will lead to the suspension of military and government work. Europe will soon gather troops to deal with Russia's military threats, and the United States will use this opportunity to withdraw troops from the Indo-Pacific strategy and return to the Asia-Pacific rebalancing.

It follows that if Europe supports Ukraine's military spending and weapons, the war will not only not cease, but will escalate. It is reported that there are problems with Russian troops, with about 840,000 casualties in the past three years. North Korea has invested 18,000 troops, and it is estimated that there are few left. For this reason, North Korea has sent a second batch of army special forces, which will lead to greater military confrontation between the ground forces sent by Britain, France, and Germany and the DPRK-Russia coalition forces in Kursk and the eastern Donbass region.

China will not sit idly by and will use its status in the United Nations to work with Russia to deal with the armistice issue within the framework of the United Nations. If there will not be a good result within the framework of the United Nations, it is also because China is currently unable to protect itself. Due to institutional problems, the domestic economy has almost collapsed, and the people's welfare is almost zero. The internal contradictions have reached a critical point, causing people to no longer trust the government, and riots and anti-government incidents have occurred frequently. Government bureaucrats are seriously corrupt and do nothing, which has led to a fault in the operation of centralization. Because there are too many civil servants, the government can no longer afford various salaries and benefits, and collapse is a matter of time.

In order to divert internal conflicts and government crises, the Chinese government will launch a war in the South China Sea, which will put the whole country into a state of war. All assets of various financial institutions will be frozen, regional restrictions on transportation will be imposed, all import and export trade will be almost stopped, and a planned supply system for food and fuel will be implemented. This will be temporarily implemented for about two years, and a beach landing will be carried out in the Taiwan Strait or Kinmen area to occupy Kinmen. The tactic of encircling Taiwan without attacking it will be implemented to reduce losses and personnel. The United States, Japan, and South Korea will be lured into the battlefield to form a confrontation with China. The Northeast Asian shipping route will be cut off. India will use its naval power to create friction and confrontation with Pakistan in the high seas in the Indian Ocean, resulting in the rupture of the upper reaches of the Indian Ocean maritime transport line. The Asian economy will fall into chaos. Prices will rise and the economies of various countries will fall into a trough.

At this time, China and the United States reached a ceasefire agreement within the framework of the United Nations. China began to rectify domestic problems, abolish the existing social security system, and abolish the old currency to achieve the goal of eliminating the problem of huge corruption. The implementation of digitalization of the RMB is the same as India.

The biggest risk is the health of the leaders. There is a power vacuum, and factions of officials hinder each other and compete for positions, resulting in poor government operation. Even collapse. The terrifying scene of city closures appeared across the country.

   Fifth, Russia

Due to Europe's participation in the war, the Russian-North Korean coalition forces and NATO forces are in fierce confrontation. Russia is facing disintegration, and anti-war sentiment is rising in the country, resulting in a sharp decline in combat effectiveness on the front battlefield, and even large-scale defeat. Putin is preparing to go into exile in Mongolia, Vladivostok, or China. The former CIS countries are falling apart and turning to the United States or Europe.Or start a war on the four islands of Japan to contain the Japanese army from increasing its troops in the Taiwan Strait. Under the strong push of the opposition, Moscow announced its defeat and ended the war. Putin stayed in the Vladivostok border area and joined North Korea to become a new independent kingdom. It may also be forced by Europe and Ukraine to go to the International Court of Justice.

 Sixth, Europe,

NATO fully mobilized 27 countries to provide military assistance to Ukraine, and a nuclear, biological and chemical crisis may occur. During the fierce battle between the two sides, the nuclear power plant was destroyed, resulting in the spread of nuclear dust radiation, and the entire eastern Ukraine was under nuclear threat. Finally, Europe, the United States, and the United Nations joined the mediation, and Ukraine joined NATO and gave up the four eastern states and Crimea. Or not to join NATO, take back Crimea and the four eastern states, and confiscate Russian assets to help Ukraine rebuild. Once the war is over, Europe will establish a sub-center (operation headquarters) in Poland to guide and participate in post-war reconstruction. In order to cope with future crises, the European Union quickly formed its own unified command army, with a heavy equipment force of 150,000 to 200,000 people, to counter the future joint forces of Russia, North Korea or China.

Seventh, the United States

         Trump wants to copy the US military model in Syria, that is, the US military extracts oil in Aleppo and the eastern region, so that Iran and Syria cannot enter the military zone. The Democratic Party and some people cooperated with the Republican Party to launch a "talk about Trump", forcing him to resign or assassinate him.

Trump and Zelensky staged a chaotic scene similar to a quarrel over unfair distribution in the White House. The world watched the excitement. The democratic beacon established by the United States since its founding was completely overturned by the Republican team represented by Trump and Vance. The Democratic camp remained silent. The Democratic Party is in self-repair and reflection. It is possible that the Democratic Party is preparing to brew a large-scale march with the anti-Trump faction to launch an impeachment case to force Trump to step down.

Of course, this is a simulation data and model for deduction and prediction. It is hoped that the United States will restore its status as a beacon of democracy, play a global hegemony, and resolutely eliminate terrorism and curb aggressive wars and play a positive role.

Eighth, there is another possibility that Zelensky steps down, the four eastern states are ceded to Russia including Crimea, and Ukraine joins Europe. The peacekeeping force composed of the United States and NATO will implement the armistice agreement in the newly demarcated buffer zone for about 5-10 years to prevent the conflict from breaking out again.

In fact, Russia has now been defeated. The United States has saved Putin from being sanctioned by the criminal court, half of the four eastern states of Ukraine are ceded to Ukraine including Crimea, and Russia is exempted from war compensation. Zelensky and Putin both step down, and the war can truly end.

In view of the above factors, potential factors are very likely to appear. Finally, I hope to cease fire and restore peace.

The above is a deduction model. Everything depends on the unpredictable changes in the international situation. It is for reference only.

俄乌战争  兵棋推演

。2025年3月4日星期一   第1104天

2025年。2月28日, 川普总统在圆桌会议室会见了乌克兰总统泽连斯基，

双方在圆桌办公室发生了争执，副总统万斯引爆了这场争吵成了美欧分水岭，成了世界的焦点。

！！这要从莫尼黑会议说起！万斯副总统在慕尼黑会议上外交经验的缺失，，批评了欧洲的战略模糊的绥靖政策，因此导致美欧之间的关系蒙上了阴影。。

从以下几个方面来研判下一步，这一盘国际棋局的走势

第一．  川普当选与中止俄乌战争有关系，美国运行了200多年来两党斗而不破，执政体系有自我修复的能力。但是川普当选为总统，他本身是商人出身，对于政治毫无疑问是弱项，他在第一个执政时期，充分体现了他商人的本质和商人的做法，与真正的地缘政治和国家战略相距甚远，他当选为新一届总统后他说24小时之内，结束俄乌战争，不知道他说这句话的底气来自何处？如果没有原因，那么他的智囊团队就毫无疑问的暴露出了自身的重大弱点，民主党和共和党一部分人必然对川普这个很不成熟的举动产生表示对立，川普使美国建立起来的大国外交、军事强人、地缘政治等国家战略丧失殆尽。

第二．  在三年的俄乌战争中，泽连斯基，却表现出了不俗的成就，一个从事艺术出身的人员被人民推选为总统，并且与世界军事第二大国进行抗衡，他的决心和毅力和智慧是有目共睹的。泽连斯基能够去美国进行谈判。一定是与欧洲有默契，并且有展望。

   尽管美国总统怒对了泽连斯基，，让全世界看到了美国民主、文明的陨落。表面看泽连斯基很弱，但是为了维护正义。却顽强的站在全世界人们的眼前。

第三．  慕尼黑会议，万斯副总统猛烈抨击欧洲和北约，可以说是他代表川普在会议上不加考虑的大放厥词，在后来川普调解时暴露了自己的底牌，他的底牌就是没有”底牌”。

           川普与万斯两个人在媒体的聚光灯下的言辞表现，不像大国总统，像在生意讨价还价的场景。川普这么做的目的就是一箭双雕。逼迫欧洲放弃模糊战略，积极出钱出力，打败俄罗斯。他这一招也确实起到了效果，现在欧洲开始拿出具体方案支持乌克兰继续对抗下去。他不愿意没激怒普京原因，因为普京被激怒会引爆核大战。这才是美国最忌惮的底层逻辑。

 拜登总统的战略思想是老辣的政治家，从地缘政治角度必须解体俄罗斯才能实现美国的战略目的，主要是就是集中集中力量对付中国。实际上俄罗斯即将彻底失败，川普新官上任急于求成，急不可耐的想收割拜登的政治果实。川普没想到中国主席也想担任调停的角色，希望在中国的斡旋下达到停战的目的，为自己争取这个巨大的国际果实来提升自己因疫情导致的经济低迷和政府效能底下的困境。

           川普与普京撇开中国，双方在没有当事国乌克兰在场的情况下在沙特闭门4个多小时，达成了共识。这个共识就是今天的美国圆桌会议的结果。

 第四，分水岭

        川普也有可能是苦肉计，表面不提俄罗斯侵略，让普京逃离欧洲作为战犯制裁的困境，因为前段时间，欧洲通过制裁会议，达成了普京应该受到海牙法庭的制裁，这个礼包是川普送给普京的最大礼物。

            当然川普也知道这样做会激怒欧洲，导致美欧关系错综复杂的再平衡。裂痕加深。川普的如意算盘有落空风险，目前川普面临政府改组，精简机构和大幅度裁员公务员，对与金钱浪费大户情报系统进行整肃，会导致军队和政府的工作停摆。欧洲很快集结军队来应对俄罗斯的军事威胁，美国借此抽身，从印太战略抽出兵力重返亚太再平衡。

由此推出，如果欧洲支持乌克兰军费、武器，那么战争不仅不会停火，还会升级，据悉俄罗斯兵员出现问题，三年来已经死伤84万左右，朝鲜投入兵力1.8万人，估计所剩无几，为此朝鲜又派出第二批陆军特种兵，这就会导致英国、法国、德国派出的地面部队与朝俄联军在库尔斯克，东部顿巴斯地区产生更大的军事对抗。

 中国不会袖手旁观，会利用联合国的地位与俄罗斯一起，在联合国框架内处理停战问题。如果在联合国框架内不会有很好的结果，也因中国目前自身难保，因为制度问题，国内经济几乎崩盘，人民福利几乎为零，内部矛盾到达临界点导致人民不再相信政府，出现暴乱、抗击政府事件频发。政府官僚因为贪污严重，躺平不作为，导致中央集权运行出现断层，因为公务员人数太多政府已经担负不起各种薪资和福利，崩盘是迟早的事。中国政府为了转移内部矛盾和政府危机，会在南中国海发动战争，由此全国进入战争状态，冻结各种金融机构开始所有资产，对交通进行区域性限制，所有进出口贸易几乎停止，粮食和燃料开始计划供应制度，这样暂时实施二年左右，并且在台湾海峡或者金门地区，抢滩登陆占领金门。对于台湾实施围而不打，降低战损减员战术。引诱美国、日本、韩国全面进入战场，与中国形成对峙之势。东北亚海运通道被切断。印度会在印度洋凭借海军力量在与巴基斯坦公海海域产生摩擦对抗，导致印度洋海上运输线上游断裂。亚洲经济陷入混乱。物价飘升各国经济陷入低谷。

此时中国与美国在联合国框剪内达成停火协议停战，中国开始整治国内问题，废掉现有社保体系，货币改版废除旧币，达到解除巨贪问题的目的，人民币实施数字化与印度一样。

          最大风险是领导人身体健康问题，出现权利真空状态，官员派系互相掣肘，争夺位置，导致政府运行不畅通。甚至崩盘。全国出现封城的恐怖景象。

第五  ，  俄罗斯

             由于欧洲参战，俄朝联军与北约军队激烈对抗，俄罗斯面临解体，国内反战情绪高涨，导致前线战场战斗力锐减，甚至大面积兵败。普京准备流亡到蒙古国、海参威、或者中国。原独联体国家各自为政分崩离析，投靠美国或者欧洲。

             或者在日本四岛发动战争，牵制日军增兵台海。莫斯科在对立派的强力推动下，宣布战败结束战争，普京留在海参威边疆区与北朝鲜连成一体，变成新独立王国。还可能被欧洲与乌克兰逼迫下走向国际法庭

第六    欧洲，

         北约全面动员27国向乌克兰提供军事援助，核生化危机可能出现，双方激战过程中打破了核电厂，导致核尘埃辐射扩散，整个乌克兰东部地区陷入核威胁中。最后是欧洲、美国、联合国加入调停，乌克兰加入北约，放弃东部四州和克里米亚。或者不加入北约，收回克里米亚和东部四州，没收俄罗斯资产帮助乌克兰重建。一旦战争结束，欧洲会在波兰建立副中心（运营总部），指导和参与战后重建。为了应对未来危机，欧盟迅速组建自己统一指挥的军队，编制要有15-20万人的重装备力量，以此抗衡未来俄罗斯与朝鲜或者中国的联合力量。

第七     美国

        川普想复制美军在叙利亚的模式，就是美军在阿勒颇和东部地区开采石油，让伊朗和叙利亚无法进入该军事区。民主党与一部分人与共和党合作启动谈何川普，逼迫辞职或者暗杀。

            美国白宫川普与泽连斯基上演了一场类似公司分配不公争吵的混乱景象。给全球看了热闹，美国自建国以来建立的民主灯塔，被川普与万斯为代表的共和党团队彻底推翻，民主党阵营沉默没有发声，民主党在自我修复和反省中，有可能民主党正在与反川普派准备酝酿大规模游行运动，启动弹劾案迫使川普下台。

当然这是推演预测的模拟数据和模型，希望美国恢复民主灯塔地位，发挥全球霸主地位，坚决消灭恐怖主义和遏制侵略战争而发挥积极作用。

。

第八     还有一种可能是泽连斯基下台，东部四州划给俄罗斯包括克里米亚，乌克兰加入欧洲。由美国与北约组成维和部队在新划定的缓冲区执行停战协定，时间大约5-10年，防止再次爆发冲突。

            实际上俄罗斯现在已经战败，美国保住普京不被刑事法庭制裁，乌克兰东部四州的一半区域划给乌克兰包括克里米亚，免除俄罗斯战争赔偿，泽连斯基与普京双双下台，战争才能实现真正结束。

鉴于以上多种因素，极有可能可能出现的潜在因素。最后希望停战，恢复和平状态。

以上是推演模型，一切要看变幻莫测的国际风云变化为准，仅供参考。