Indo-Pacific Organization Strategic Planning Department (War Game Forecast) Analysis Report

Indo-Pacific Organization Strategic Planning Department (War Game Forecast) Analysis Report

Thursday, May 18, 2023, Kuala Lumpur

When the virus broke out in December 2019, we have been closely monitoring the evolution of the global situation. The Wuhan epidemic caused the world to enter a state of critical war. The irrational three years of continuous tension and control have led to the collapse of the global order, economy, and law. On February 24, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out. At the beginning, our war games predicted Russia’s military Actions will end in failure.

Russia’s military actions have alarmed NATO allies. Regardless of historical reasons, Putin’s order to invade Ukraine is doomed to fail. Russia’s total GDP is not as good as the GDP of a province in Zhejiang, China. As far as war is concerned, it is a death game that consumes money quickly. War In the initial stage, 20 billion U.S. dollars will be consumed every day, and the ammunition needs the supply of three special trains.

From May 29 to June 9, 2023, 14 NATO countries are holding "Challenge-2023" military exercises around Russia, with a proposed build-up of 300,000 troops.On May 18, China's Shaanxi Province hosts a summit of five Central Asian countries that is. President Xi Jinping will preside over the summit. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, UzbekistanFrom May 19 to 21, the Japanese government will hold discussions and a general schedule of events related to the G7 Hiroshima Summit in Hiroshima City. In the afternoon, they will discuss the Ukraine issue and nuclear disarmament, and on the 20th, they will discuss economic security and the expansion of participation in emerging markets and developing countries, known as the "Global South". As a result, the organization's strategic research has concluded that the international order has been irrationally challenged since the end of the epidemic, especially since the Russian-Ukrainian war led to the loss of the UN's ability to mediate the war, and the global order established since World War II has died in name only. The geopolitical tectonic plates are being redefined.

For more than a year, Russia has been unable to fight, many countries in Europe are preparing for the truce between Russia and Ukraine, they are around the war reparations to start a heated discussion, the South China Sea, China wants to unify Taiwan by force issue, geopolitical influence, Japan, South Korea's transportation lifelines are affected, if China unifies Taiwan, according to the definition of the continental shelf high seas economic exclusive zone of 2 hundred nautical miles, the entire South China Sea is all allocated to China Economic exclusive zone, the establishment of military observation and inspection in the exclusive economic zone of the two projects, downstream of Japan and South Korea's lifeline will be cut off, these two countries do not have the ability to counteract China, then the United States, NATO, to create a Northeast Asian "small NATO" can completely counteract the pressure of China. Then the conditions for China's unification by force will be broken.

 China is unable to release the contradictions between the people and the government due to internal regime change issues, and is likely to resort to a forceful attack on Taiwan to divert attention from the domestic pressure, and Taiwan is currently responsible for supplying production links for the U.S. high-tech industry of semiconductors, then the U.S. will take military action in order to maintain its military deterrence around the world. According to the Korean War in the 1950s, the Vietnam War, to come up with will certainly send troops to war, then by the United States, Japan and South Korea combined will trap China in the South China Sea, if China's entire population into a state of war, India will be at this time to send troops to Tibet resulting in China's two-front war.

 By NATO to hold Russia can not save themselves, the United States, Japan, India, South Korea, Britain, France full-scale war against China, the Third World War prologue will be officially opened. The global economy will be set back 40 years, and China will go straight back to the 1950s. The war is expected to kill around 450 million people. The war node should be the moment the U.S. requires the withdrawal of investment in China to end in 2022, and foreign investment in China is currently undergoing rapid withdrawal and is expected to end in August! Then the start of the war should be in November to the end of March 2024. At this time countries will be a large number of evacuation operations.

 If World War III does not break out, then it will enter a period of a new Cold War situation in which China and the five Central Asian countries plus Russia form a new geopolitical regional block to counter the US-led multinational bloc. The global economy enters a period of downturn.

Strategic Planning Department War Projection Blueprint

2023, 5, 18

印太组织战略规划部（兵棋推演）分析报告

2023年5月18日星期四, 吉隆坡

在2019年12月病毒爆发，我们就密切关注着全球局势的演变过程。武汉疫情导致全球进入临界战争状态，非理性的三年持续紧张管控，导致全球秩序、经济、法律等几乎崩塌，2022年2月24日，俄乌战争爆发，一开始我们兵棋推演预测俄罗斯的军事行动会失败而告终。

俄罗斯的军事行动惊动了北约盟国，不管历史任何原因，普京下令入侵乌克兰注定要失败，俄罗斯的GDP总量还不如中国浙江一个省的GDP，就战争而言那是快速消耗金钱的死亡游戏，战争初期每天消耗2百亿美元，弹药需要三个专列车的供应量。

2023年5月29日至6月9日，北约14国在俄周边举行“挑战—2023”军事演习，拟集结30万兵力。

5月18日，中国陕西省举办中亚五国峰会即。国家主席习近平将主持峰会。哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦

5月19日至21日，日本政府将在广岛市举行的七国集团首脑会议（G7广岛峰会）讨论及活动相关的大致日程。19日上午，日本首相岸田文雄夫妇将在和平纪念公园迎接到访人士。下午讨论乌克兰问题及核裁军。20日讨论经济安全保障和对被称为“全球南方”的新兴市场及发展中国家事务扩大参与。

由此，本组织战略研判得出，疫情结束后国际秩序受到非理性挑战，特别是俄乌战争导致联合国失去了调停战争的能力，自二战以来建立的全球秩序已经名存实亡。地缘政治的板块划正在分重新定义。

  一年多来，俄罗斯已经无力再打下去，欧洲多国都在为俄乌停战做准备，它们围绕着战争赔款展开了激烈讨论，南中国海，中国想武力统一台湾问题，受地缘政治影响，日本、韩国的交通命脉受到影响，如果中国统一台湾，根据大陆架公海经济专属区的2百海里定义，整个南中国海全部划为中国经济专属区，在经济专属区内设立军事观察和检查这两个项目，下游日韩的命脉就会切断，这两个国家又不具备抗衡中国的能力，那么与美国、北约组织联合起来，打造东北亚“小北约组织”就可以完全抗衡中国的压力。那么中国武力统一的条件就会破灭。

  中国由于内部政权更迭问题产生的人民与政府间的矛盾无法释放，很可能诉诸武力攻打台湾来转移视线缓解国内压力，台湾目前又担负着美国的高科技产业半导体的供应生产环节，那么美国为了保持自己在全球的军事威慑力而采取军事行动。根据1950年代的朝鲜战争、越南战争、得出一定会出兵参战，那么由美日韩三国合力就会把中国困死在南海，如果中国全民皆兵进入战时状态，印度会在此时出兵西藏导致中国两线作战。

由北约牵制俄罗斯不能自救，美、日、印、韩、英、法全面对华作战，第三次世界大战序幕就会正式拉开。全球经济倒退40年，中国直接退回回到1950年代。预计战争死亡人口在4.5亿左右。战争节点应该是2022年美要求在华投资撤出结束的时刻，目前外国在华投资正在快速撤离中，预计8月份结束！那么开战时间应该在11月至2024年3月底。此时各国会大量撤侨行动。

  如果第三次世界大战不能爆发，那么就会进入新冷战局面时期，中国与中亚五国加俄罗斯形成新的地缘政治区域板块来对抗以美国为首的多国集团。全球经济进入低迷期。

                              战略规划部兵棋推演蓝本

2023、5、18