Russia launched a medium-range ballistic missile on Thursday in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro

Global Order: Russia-Ukraine War

Day 1007, War Prediction    2024/11/26

Trump was elected as the new president in the US election, and there are still 60 days (two months) before he takes office. Trump is no longer the businessman president after being re-elected. After failing to compete with Biden, he has begun to correct his own shortcomings. In other words, the current President Trump is definitely not the previous President Trump.

 During Biden's administration, the Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Palestine War occurred. According to the predictions of the original war game simulations, it is necessary to re-evaluate the war situation and the changes in the world order.

 Trump's re-election has accelerated the readjustment of the global order. From a global perspective, looking at the post-war order since 1945, mankind has entered a new turning point. Let's start with the Russian-Ukrainian war. After 1,005 days, the war has not ended. Russia used intercontinental ballistic missiles without nuclear warheads to attack Ukraine. Putin warned Ukraine, but in fact he was intimidating the United States and NATO.

 Judging from the current reaction, Europe has not been intimidated. The UK has directly warned that if anyone dares to release nuclear weapons, it will also declare war, and so will Germany.

 At present, the new president of the US government has not yet taken office, and the world is speculating on Trump's future policies. There is no doubt that stopping the Russia-Ukraine war is the top priority for Trump, which is in line with his core interests. Since Musk has joined Trump's team, the Starlink he controls may cooperate with Trump's strategy and stop serving Ukraine to force Zelensky to cease fire. Due to Trump's irrational thinking, Europe is forced to send troops to protect itself. In this way, Trump kills two birds with one stone. The United States reduces its aid investment while forcing Europe to participate deeply in the war.

 The current situation of Russia and Ukraine is that both have increased the intensity of their attacks. Ukraine's occupation of Kursk is killing two birds with one stone. Biden's Democratic Party also laid the groundwork for a peaceful handover with Trump. Biden suddenly released the range of HIMARS in the final stage, which is tantamount to condoning Ukraine to strike in depth at Moscow, which will inevitably anger Putin. Putin will release a nuclear bomb or go all out. If a nuclear war breaks out before Trump takes office, then Biden will continue to govern and become a wartime president. Due to his aging health, Harris will successfully succeed the president.

Both the Zelensky and Putin groups are gambling on a ceasefire before Trump takes office.

As the intensity of the war increases, both sides are trying to gain the most benefits when Trump takes office, but Russia's rear is currently China, North Korea, and Iran, while Ukraine's rear is the entire Europe, NATO, and the United States.

 There have been plans and versions for the ceasefire of this war. The interest groups on both sides have their own ulterior motives. China wants to use this opportunity to launch a war across the Taiwan Strait to unify Taiwan. Russia wants to occupy the four eastern states of Ukraine. Ukraine wants to join Europe and NATO. In fact, Russia has always wanted to join Europe but has not succeeded, and of course it does not want to see Ukraine succeed.

 China's domestic economy is almost collapsing, and the head of state is eager to establish a strongman image to strengthen the rule of domestic stability, because the opposition has been watching the head of state's jokes.

Russia's Putin has been in power for 20 years. When he came to power, he established a strongman image by flying airplanes, driving submarines, riding horses, and shooting bears. He promised to give the people a strong Russia after re-election. As a result, the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, and his strongman image was directly degraded, so he wanted to save this face.

 When Trump of the United States was re-elected, his policy agenda was to start with a ceasefire, to bring world peace and to make America great. To achieve these two goals, he must raise taxes on Europe and China to make America great.

The ceasefire is his personal political legacy, and he changed the course of the world.

 Biden will step down in less than two months, and he also wants to earn a political legacy for the Democratic Party and himself. Therefore, Zelensky and Biden will completely use up US military aid in the shortest possible time to gain bargaining chips for ceasefire negotiations.

 The biggest risk now is that China may start a war in the South China Sea, and North Korea may start a coordinated war. In order to control the war situation, the United States has deployed three aircraft carrier battle groups to the Asia-Pacific to prevent the outbreak of war. If the Chinese head of state does not start a war, then domestic economic and social problems will overwhelm his ruling system. Starting a war will ruin Trump's new presidential path. At present, it seems that no one can afford to lose, and no one can afford to back down! The biggest risk is here, let us wait and see.

 Indo-Pacific Strategic Planning Department

全球秩序之俄乌战争 

第1005天，兵棋推演 2024/11/26

  正值美国大选川普当选新一届总统，距离上任还有60天（两个月）

川普再次当选他已经不是那个商人总统了，经过与拜登竞争失败，他已经开始了自身缺点的修正，也就是说现在的川普总统绝不是前一任川普总统。

拜登执政时期，发生了俄乌战争，以色列与巴勒斯坦战争，根据原来兵棋推演的预测，需要重新评估战争态势和世界秩序的版块变化。

川普再次当选加速了全球秩序的重新调整，站在全球视野的角度看自1945年来战后秩序，人类进入新的历程拐点。首先从俄乌战争开始刨析，历经1005天，战争没有结束，俄罗斯使用了洲际弹道导弹没有携带核弹头向乌克兰打去，普京在警告乌克兰，实际上是在恐吓美国、北约。从目前反应看，欧洲没有被吓倒，英国直接警告如果胆敢释放核武器，英国也有并且直接宣战，德国也是如此。

目前美国政府新总统没有上任，全球都在揣摩川普的未来施政，川普毫无疑问停止俄乌战争是重中之重，符合他的核心利益，由于马斯克加入川普团队，他掌控的星链可能会配合川普的策略，停止为乌克兰服务迫使泽连斯基停战，由于川普的非理性思维使然，倒逼欧洲自保出兵，这样川普一举两得美国减少了援助投入同时逼欧洲深度参战。俄乌现在的态势是都加大了打击力度，乌克兰占领库尔斯克是一箭双雕，拜登的民主党与川普和平交接也是埋了伏笔，拜登在最后阶段突然放开海玛斯射程，等于纵容乌克兰打击莫斯科纵深，必然激怒普京，普京会释放核弹或者孤注一掷，如果川普还没有上任突然爆发核战争，那么拜登继续执政变成战时总统，由于身体年迈问题，哈瑞斯则顺利接替总统。

  泽连斯基与普京两个集团都在赌博川普上任之前的停战筹码。

战争提高烈度双方加大，都想争取在川普上任时得到最大利益，但是目前俄罗斯的后方是中国，朝鲜，伊朗。而乌克兰的后方是整个欧洲、北约、美国。此次战争停战，早就有计划和版本，双方利益集团各怀鬼胎，中国想借此发动台海战争统一台湾。而俄罗斯想占领乌克兰东部四个州。而乌克兰则是加入欧洲、北约。实际上俄罗斯一直想加入欧洲但是没有成功，当然不愿意看到乌克兰成功。

   中国国内经济几乎崩塌，元首急于树立强人形象加强统治国内稳定，因为反对派一直在一旁看元首的笑料。 俄罗斯普京已经执政20年，他上台时开飞机、开潜艇、骑马、射杀狗熊等树立了强人形象，承诺连任后还给人民一个强大的俄罗斯，结果俄乌战争爆发，自己的强人形象直接贬损，所以他想挽回这个面子。美国川普，再次当选他的施政纲领就是开篇停战，让世界和平、让美国伟大，实现这两个目标就必须给欧洲加税，给中国加税来完成美国伟大。停战则是他个人的政治遗产，他改变了世界历程。

  拜登距离下台还有不到二个月，他也想为民主党、以及他本人赚取政治遗产，因此泽连斯基与拜登会在最短时间内，把美国的军事援助彻底打完，争取停战谈判的筹码。现在最大的风险是，中国可能发动南中国海战争，北朝鲜打响配合战争。美国为了控制战局又把三个航母战斗群部署到亚太，防止爆发战争。中国元首如果不发动战争，那么国内经济问题和社会问题就会压垮他的执政体系，发动战争就会把川普的新总统之路给废掉，目前看来谁都输不起，谁都不能怂！最大的风险在这里让我们拭目以待。